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Double-dip recession '20 per cent likely at most'



An expert has indicated that the chances of the UK witnessing a double-dip recession are about 20 per cent likely at most.

Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, suggested that although it is unrealistic to expect the economy to continue to record one per cent growth, a return to the worst symptoms of the credit crunch would be something of a surprise.

He said the prospect of a financial relapse has "a maximum probability of 20 per cent".

Mr Goodwin added: "Though some of the business surveys have slipped a little over the past month or so they remain firmly in expansionary territory."

The expert gave his view that if there was to be a return to financial stagnation, the Bank of England would probably resume its programme of quantitative easing.

The remarks follow comments from Andrew Lilico, chief economist at Policy Exchange, who claimed a double-dip recessions is likely, although it could be followed by a boom period.

Posted by Helen Causer
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